Dutch agriculture is defined by small but incredibly efficient holdings

Although a transition from agriculture to industry and rural to urban might seem natural, it is in reality perilous and difficult. Both Karl Polanyi and Alexander Gerschenkron provide cautionary tales of the mismanagement of class decline. They demonstrate that the most fundamental potential consequences of poor class management are collapse of democratic regimes and the rise of authoritarian alternatives, accompanied by social unrest. Thus in the wake of a war that destroyed the continent and saw the rise of fascism in the heart of Europe, the post-war task of successfully managing the decline of the farmers was immensely important. The Common Agricultural Policy was the plan for navigating the peaceful transition from agriculture to industry without destroying democracy along the way. Along with these significant successes, however, came major costs and what proved to be systemic problems.Although the CAP brought many benefits to European farmers and society, its reliance on high prices generated several problems, starting with a growing imbalance between supply and demand. The introduction of the CAP coincided with a substantial leap forward in technical and scientific progress, such as improved chemical fertilizers and new farming equipment. These advances resulted in a dramatic increase in output. While the baby boom was in full swing when the CAP was being debated and designed, by the 1970s, population growth was slowing. The improved agricultural output quickly resolved the post-war food crisis and ensured that the vast majority of the population was well fed. Consequently, total food consumption remained steady while food output skyrocketed. Meanwhile, the CAP continued to incentivize production, yielding chronic surpluses for a growing number of products, including sugar, wheat, and milk. CAP rules required these surpluses to be purchased and stored at the European Community’s expense. Their disposal quickly became a serious problem. The products could not be sold on the Community market without depressing prices,bluebery pot size which would undermine the CAP’s goal of increasing farmer incomes.

One alternative, destroying surpluses, was politically unviable. The memory of starvation in Europe was still strong, and thus there was a powerful morally negative association attached to the destruction of food. Given these restrictions, the surpluses were disposed of in three main ways. One was to sell the products back to farmers at low prices. This option was primarily utilized with those goods that could serve as animal feed. To prevent farmers from reselling the bargain-priced feed for the higher guaranteed prices on the market, the surplus grains sold to farmers were “denatured” . A second option was to use export subsidies to sell the commodities purchased at intervention prices at the much lower world prices . The third option was to use the surpluses for food aid. Overall, surplus disposal was very expensive and quickly became one of the largest expenditures of the “Guarantee” portion of the EAGGF7 High CAP prices did not necessarily lift all farmers’ boats. On the contrary, the CAP created vast inequality among farmers, both across and within member states. With CAP support based on market intervention, the amount of support received was directly proportional to the amount of goods produced. Under this system, the larger, commodity producing farmers raced ahead, while the smaller and/or non-commodity producers made little gain. Larger farmers, who produced more, benefited the most. Moreover, the gap widened as they bought up available land and invested in the latest machinery to boost output. Meanwhile, subsistence farmers, many of whom still milked their cows by hand, continued to survive on the land, but lacked the means to modernize and expand. Essentially, the CAP served to modernize and improve the larger farms, but for the small family farms, it did little more than allow them to survive and did not improve small farmer incomes in a meaningful or sustainable way. This income problem, both within and across member states, has persisted to the present day and is an issue that current CAP reform is still struggling to address. High CAP prices also caused recurring budgetary crises as the EU was required to purchase and store or dump whatever was produced at prices that were inflated.

Indeed, these obligations consumed the budget, while other important CAP projects, such as modernization and rural development, were woefully underdeveloped and underfunded. The problems stemming from inflated prices were obvious very quickly, but became hard to change since farmers violently opposed price cuts. The budgetary crisis could be resolved in one of two ways: cutting prices or overhauling the fundamental operation of the CAP. The former solution ran contrary to the CAP’s use of inflated prices to improve incomes. In addition, as studies of social welfare state retrenchment reveal, it is exceptionally difficult to cut benefits once they have been extended. The second solution, to achieve paradigmatic reform by altering the core operation of the CAP, was highly controversial. Agricultural differences among the member states made it almost impossible to agree on any kind of significant CAP reform. CAP reform, whether in 1968 or in 2019, is defined by a lack of consensus. Member states are split on every issue from how farmers should be paid, to the methods for protecting the environment, to if such rules should even exist in the first place. While every member state plays an active part in CAP negotiations, there are four countries that tend to drive negotiations and dominate the narrative. In addition, these four countries, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, play a role akin to a coalition leader. The dividing line on most, but not all, issues tends to be drawn between the coalition led by the former two countries and that led by the latter two. Where these countries are positioned on any CAP issue is almost always driven by their agricultural production profile. French agriculture is diverse on all accounts. It includes the highly productive and the uncompetitive, the commodity producers and the specialty goods cultivators, and the large landholders and the small family farmers. Not all groups and preferences are equal, however, and the large landholding cereals producers tend to have more political influence than other farmers. Since the CAP was essentially France’s compensation for supporting German industry, France is typically the most ardent defender of the portions of the CAP committed to supporting and improving farmer incomes. Particularly in the early years of the CAP, these policies were how France forced other countries, most notably Germany, to pay for the modernization of French agriculture. France typically leads a coalition that seeks to preserve CAP support for farmers, to keep prices high, and to ensure compensation for any burdens or new standards imposed on farmers. Germany’s production profile and CAP preferences are best understood by dividing them temporally, pre and post-unification.

At the time the CAP was created, smaller, family-style farms predominated in West Germany. A notable exception, however, were the grain farmers in Bavaria. So, at the CAP’s creation and in its first decades, Germany preferred higher prices. At this time, high prices were a means for modernizing the sector and also for preventing its sudden and total collapse, with industrial jobs looking increasingly attractive in Germany. Indeed,raspberry container size the post-war recovery and modernization of its agricultural sector were particularly important. Around the time of reunification, however, Germany’s preferences began to shift and it has come to slightly prefer more financial discipline as the burden of its financial contribution to the EU has increased. Specifically, by the late 1980s, agriculture in the west had long since modernized. Now, Germany was confronted with the massive financial burden of absorbing the East, essentially a Soviet colony that lagged behind West Germany on every measure. Given the financial burden associated with reunification, Germany sought to contain expenditure as much as possible elsewhere. Essentially, Germany no longer wanted to pay to subsidize French farmers when it needed to modernize all aspects of society and the economy in half of its own country. Despite calling for financial discipline, however, Germany tends to oppose efforts to limit the amount an individual farmer can receive, given the internal structural diversity of its agriculture. Moreover, farms in the East tended to be large, and would be likely to be hit with the effects of any effort to cap incomes. One important similarity has persisted, pre and post-unification, which is that Germany is traditionally a strong supporting member of France’s coalition. Though it breaks with France from time to time, those moments are the exception and not the norm. The United Kingdom is home to some of the largest farms in the EU, with a mean holding size nearly six times the EU average. Until eastern enlargement in 2004 the UK had, on average, the largest farms with a mean holding size of 94 hectares compared to an EU average of 16.4 hectares . Though there is some diversity, the dominant production is in cereals and livestock-related goods. In addition, UK farmers tend to be efficient and competitive, even without price supports. The relative competitiveness of British farmers, coupled with the UK’s substantial financial contributions to the EU, is the major factor driving British attitudes toward the CAP. Although UK farmers are among the largest individual beneficiaries, the situation is spun as one where British government is paying to subsidize its own farmers’ competitors. For the UK, the preferred CAP outcome is to cut spending as much as possible, ideally eliminating income supports entirely. Indeed, the UK routinely favors cuts to prices and income supports. However, because its farms are so large, the UK also opposes any efforts to limit individual benefit levels.

If prices and income supports cannot be entirely removed, then the UK will see its farmers disproportionately bear the burden of income limits. In negotiations, then, the UK typically leads the price-cut coalition.Most production is concentrated in livestock and horticulture, as opposed to commodity products. In addition, the Netherlands places a particular emphasis on research and innovation in agriculture and agricultural technology. Indeed, the world’s leading agricultural research institute is located in Wageningen, the Netherlands. This commitment has allowed the Dutch to become one of Europe’s top agricultural-exporting countries despite having very little land available for agriculture. Dutch agriculture is also defined by a robust commitment to rigorous environmental standards, important in a densely populated country with limited arable land. The ideal CAP outcome for the Netherlands would include the elimination of any price supports and direct income payments so that the most competitive and efficient countries, like the Netherlands, would not be forced to subsidize those who are weaker. In addition, the Netherlands would prefer to see stronger environmental standards. It is typically part of a coalition led by the UK that seeks to cut spending on prices and income supports. These sharp and persistent divisions help explain why systemic reform is only possible under conditions of disruptive politics. Disruptive politics help reformers overcome these divisions among the member states. Challenges such as enlargement or trade negotiations can force member states to reevaluate their policy preferences and priorities. These additional pressures can also raise the stakes for reaching an agreement, incentivizing member states to find a compromise or to agree to a larger policy change than they otherwise normally would. For example, these external actors can threaten to impose change that is broadly disagreeable to agricultural interests. As disruptive politics makes member state divisions and preferences less rigid, paradigmatic reform becomes possible. When CAP reform is negotiated during politics as usual, as the following examples in this chapter will demonstrate, the fundamental divisions on core policies cannot be overcome. There is little incentive for member states to reevaluate their preferences. As a result, the policies that emerge from CAP reform initiatives tend to produce little meaningful change to the operation of core CAP programs. The policies and changes that do result in these situations are those that upset no one. They are often defined by lax rules, extensive exemptions, and/or their voluntary nature.

Population growth rates vary tremendously geographically

The A2 vision focuses primarily on Low Density Residential development, while the B1 scenario is relatively evenly split between Low, Medium, and High Density types, and AB32-Plus favors Medium and High densities. In addition to modeling these three scenarios, we examined additional versions of A2 and AB32-Plus in which we held population constant at the B1 level, and in which we held population, energy efficiency for both homes and vehicles, and utility-portfolio assumptions constant. This step provides a more analogous comparison of the land use influence within the three scenarios.After modeling urban-growth footprints for the A2, B1, and AB32-Plus scenarios, we calculated two main categories of GHG emissions for the new urbanization produced by each scenario. These calculations help provide a ballpark sense of the magnitude of emissions variations that can result from different policy approaches. For the sake of simplicity, we focused on emissions from the operation of motor vehicles and residential structures, not their life cycle emissions from construction and materials, because operating emissions are likely to be a large majority of the total in both cases and thus estimate the emissions trade offs of different urbanization trajectories. Within the transportation category of GHG emissions, many factors potentially affect individual travel decisions within a given type of urban location, including: land use mix and densities in the surrounding area; the availability, attractiveness, and price of alternative travel modes; the nature of the travel route network, including available route choices and congestion; social pressures, influences, and incentives; and self-selection of residents living in that type of urban location.

An extensive field of travel modeling has attempted to take many of these variables into account ,plastic gardening pots usually projecting travel in the future based on changes to current conditions. But given that travel, like many other behavior choices, is highly multi-determined, the process is problematic. Even within time frames of 20 years or less, travel forecasts are often highly inaccurate , and have had particular difficulties in incorporating variables related to land development and urban design. For a longer time frame such as 2050, social factors, economic conditions, and behavioral changes are likely to play a larger role, changing travel demand in unpredictable ways and making modeling even more problematic. Accordingly, we have chosen here to keep our calculations to a very basic level, simply extrapolating travel based on the existing range of travel differences between residents in areas of different densities. Household travel surveys done by SACOG show that household vehicle miles travelled vary by a factor of 6 between households in low-density and high-density locations . Some of this difference may be due to household size, composition, and demographics, but much is probably due to accessibility factors , including proximity to jobs, shopping, and schools, and alternative transportation modes. All of these environmental variables can be assumed to vary in unison: the B1 and AB32-Plus storylines assume improved balance of jobs, housing, and shopping within communities; improved bicycle, pedestrian, and public-transit options; rising gas prices and/or carbon taxes; and other economic incentives such as higher parking and road-use charges. Likewise, we can assume that these multiple changes tend to influence resident behavior in synergistic ways; for example, individuals drive less in a dense urban environment because people discover alternatives and are influenced by their peers. Thus, the assumption of a strong difference in driving between low- and high-density environments in 2050 for purposes of back casting scenarios seems reasonable.

Transportation emissions also depend on the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles. The average fuel efficiency of American vehicles remained more or less unchanged from the mid-1980s through the early 2010s, and so for purposes of illustration we assumed only modest further improvements in the A2 scenario until 2050. In the B1 scenario, we assumed additional efficiency increases of 2% a year , which would plausibly be brought about through improvements in the US national CAFE standards. For the AB32-Plus scenario, we assumed improvements of 4% a year . These assumptions are reasonable given recent efficiency improvements such as the spread of hybrid vehicle technologies. Despite accelerating globalization, food security in most of the developing world depends upon local food production. Most rural citizens in developing nations are involved in agriculture . Also, most locally produced goods are consumed locally, so increasing local productivity and slowing population growth remains a central food security issue . Over the past few years, energy price increases, bio-fuels and food scarcity have led to higher global food prices and price volatility.Rapidly increasing consumer prices limit food access. Increased price volatility reduces the benefit that small scale farmers derive from higher producer prices. Bio-fuels create competition between poor people in the developing world and energy consumers in the developed world. While higher priced commodities can bring direct benefits to farmers, these benefits will not be attained without significant and sustained investments in agriculture to increase production and in programs that reduce price volatility. High and volatile food prices make local production even more important for food insecure regions. With high prices and continually increasing transportation costs, producing more locally will become an important source of vitality for programs focused on reducing poverty .

Connecting new innovations in crop research with improved outcomes in the developing world will likely require public sector investments . The recent entry into small-scale agricultural investment by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has added new vibrancy to efforts focused on understanding barriers to increasing yields and sustaining production in the face of climate change. This paper explores the convergence of three different trends: changes in agricultural production, changing climate and increasing population. Our assumption in the analyses presented is that that some countries will continue to have substantially less purchasing power than others over the next few decades. Although global trade is important, we assume that regions with small agriculturally based economies today are unlikely to transform themselves into industrial nations without first improving their agricultural productivity . The collision between increasing global food demand, competition for food with developed world energy consumers and increasingly difficult production conditions means that the food security situation is likely to worsen. Climate change will potentially bring reduced rainfall over some regions, and increased rainfall over others. The impact of these changes on agriculture must be anticipated and planned for . To this end, this paper examines potential trends in per capita cereal production and rainfall. While other foods make substantial contributions to diets in many areas,blueberry pot size per capita cereal production is indicative of general food availability in most developing countries. If the current rates of yield and population increases persist, many regions will see substantial declines in cereal availability. Greenhouse gas-induced reductions in monsoonal rainfall could exacerbate these grain shortages. On the other hand, relatively modest yield improvements in the least developed nations could lead to improved levels of per capita cereal production by 2030. If done sustainably, raising yields in these poorest nations may be the most technologically feasible way of addressing global cereal demands while reducing poverty and food insecurity.This study uses five sets of data : agricultural statistics, population, observed rainfall and simulated rainfall from 10 different global climate models . Based on simple equations describing the conservation of mass, momentum, radiation and other key dynamic factors, the global climate models simulate the full atmosphere at sub-daily time steps. These models may be constrained by observed sea surface temperatures , or run combined with ocean models in full simulation mode. When constrained by observed SSTs, the models produce circulations resembling the observed atmosphere. This analysis uses 24 of these 20th century simulations from 10 models to examine how well the models recreate observed seasonal rainfall variations between 1980 and 2000 rainfall observations. Our study also examines climate change simulations for the 21st century which predict a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 2100 . When combined with ocean models and forced by projected trends in greenhouse gasses and aerosols, climate simulations can be used to examine the impact due to anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere. This study examines 28 simulations from a standard emission scenario—the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRESA1B. Individual simulations were weighted in such a way as to give each model an equal influence.Between 1961 and 1986, global total cereal yield increased by 89%, harvested area expanded by 11% and global per capita cereal production increased enormously, with a maximum in about 1986 .

Population, meanwhile, grew by 60% over those 25 years, resulting in an increase in per capita cereal production from 284 to 372 kg of grain per person per year. The last 21 years have seen slower population growth accompanied by slower yield improvements and a 2% reduction in the total area harvested. Surprisingly, over this period according to FAO and UN data, per capita harvested area, fertilizer and seed use have all declined by 20–30% . Presumably, higher yielding seeds, double cropping of rice, irrigation and more effective farming techniques have made up for lower per capita inputs. Per capita production is now about 350 kg of cereal per person per year, 6% less than the 1986 maximum. The relative stabilization of global per capita production hides the increased use of cereals for biofuels, alcohol and meat production, as well as significant variations between regions.Four regions have more than doubled their population since 1980: Eastern Africa, Western Africa, Middle Africa and Western Asia. Central America, Southern America, Northern Africa, Southern Africa, Southern Asia, and Southeastern Asia have seen their populations increase by more than 50%. Since 1980, two out of every three people born now live in Asia. Another one out of four lives in Africa. Across most of Africa, harvested area has increased substantially more than yields . In Eastern Africa, for example, yields have only increased by 25% since 1980, while harvested area increased by 55%. In Western Africa yields increased by 42% while harvested area increased by 127%. Yields, per capita harvested area and production remain very low. Across much of the rest of the world, harvested areas have remained fairly steady and yields have been the primary driver of agricultural growth. Our evaluation of FAO statistics shows that Southern America, Northern America, Eastern, Southern and Southeastern Asia have experienced greater than 70% increases in yields since 1980. Today, huge regional disparities in yields remain the norm. In 2007, cereal yields varied by almost 600%, from ~1,000 kg ha−1 in Middle Africa, to more than 5,000 kg ha−1 in Northern America, Eastern Asia, and Europe.4 Given that global and regional tendencies in per capita harvested area and yields appear fairly predictable on 10 year scales , we may plausibly use the observed trends to project to 2030. Table 4 presents the anticipated 2007 to 2030 changes, expressed as kg of cereals per person per year, and as percent changes compared to 2007. Figure 3 shows the historical and projected per capita cereal production for selected regions. Globally, a return to per capita production of the late 1960s, when per capita production was near 327 kg per person,appears likely. Eastern Asia may return to 1980s production levels and Southern Asia to 1960s levels . Declines in heavily populated Asia could re-expose millions of people to chronic undernourishment.5 Central and Southern America may experience 18–20% declines in per capita cereal production levels. Eastern and Middle Africa, however, may be affected most, with more than 30% reductions in already low per capita cereal production levels, with Eastern Africa changing from 131 kg per year in 2007 to 84 kg per person per year in 2030. United Nations projections suggest that the population of Eastern Africa will increase by 191 million people by 2030—a net increase second only to Southern Asia. While imprecise, it is instructive to evaluate simple food balance equations, examining the number of people who could be reasonably supported by the anticipated levels of grain production . We do this by calculating the theoretical population without food . Globally, the 2030 food balance estimates suggest that as now, we will still have enough grain to maintain our human population,albeit at a low baseline value of 1,900 calories a day. This estimate, however, does not take into account grain consumption associated with livestock production, biofuels or industrial applications.