A global overview of climate induced forest mortality provides a detailed assessment of events driven by climatic water/heat stress since 1970; few of these documented die back events provide opportunity to examine vegetation changes that occur over a longer time frame. Yellow-cedar , a species distributed from the northern Klamath Mountains of California to Prince William Sound in Alaska, has been dying in southeast Alaska since the late 1800s with intensifying rates observed in the 1970s and 1980s . Recent research reveals a complex ‘‘tree injury pathway’’ where climate change plays a key role in a web of interactions leading to widespread yellow-cedar mortality, referred to as yellow-cedar decline . Prominent factors in this injury pathway include cold tolerance of roots, timing of dehardening, and regional trends of reduced snowp ack at low elevations . Early springtime thaws trigger dehardening and reduce snow cover that insulates soil and shallow fine roots from periodic extreme cold events; this can lead to injury of yellow-cedar roots to initiate tree mortality, which is predominantly limited to lower elevations . Despite the extent of research on the mechanisms of decline, over story and under story dynamics in declining stands are not well understood . The direct loss of yellow-cedar has important ecological, economic, and cultural implications; however, other changes are also relevant in these forests that emerge in response to decline. Researchers are just beginning to understand the influence of dead cedars on watershed nutrient export . Economically and culturally,grow bucket yellow-cedar trees are important because they provide valuable products for Alaska Native communities and the forest industry . These coastal forests also provide forage for the Sitka black-tailed deer , an important game animal throughout the region.
Since the 1980s, much forest-related research in southeast Alaska has addressed the implications of various active forest management regimes on habitat of this commonly hunted species and biodiversity ; aspects of this research centered on old growth habitat and the effects of land use practices, such as clear cutting or partial cutting on forage . To date, researchers have not addressed the effects of yellow-cedar decline on the availability of key forage species. Death of yellow-cedar and the shifts in plant community dynamics in forests affected by decline can have cascading effects on the human-natural system by affecting the ecosystem services these forests provide . We studied the process of forest development using a chronosequence to compare forests unaffected by widespread mortality with those affected at different time points over approximately one century. Considering size classes from seedlings to large trees across the chronosequence, our analysis of the conifer species populations at various life history stages, including death, documented changes occurring in forests affected by decline, and extended a view of forest composition and structure into the future. We hypothesized that: western hemlock and other conifers increase in importance as the contribution of yellow-cedar to the conifer community structure is reduced over time, seedling and sapling regeneration increases as yellow-cedars die and the canopy opens, community composition of understory plants changes over time such that shrubs increase in abundance, and the volume of key forage species for the Sitka black-tailed deer increases in forests affected by decline. Our study illustrates the long-term consequences for many plant species when a single tree species suffers from climate-induced mortality.
Modern climate in the southeast region of Alaska is mild and hypermaritime with year round precipitation, absence of prolonged dry periods, and comprised of comparatively mild season conditions than continental climates at similar latitudes . Mean annual rainfall measured in Sitka and Gustavus, the two closest towns to the remote, outer coast study area, measure 2200 and 1700 mm, respectively. The high rainfall that occurs throughout the Alexander Archipelago, combined with its unique island geography, geologic history, and absence of fires maintain some of the most expansive old-growth forests found in North America. Five common conifer species occur on the northern range of the Archipelago: western hemlock , mountain hemlock , yellow-cedar, Sitka spruce , and shore pine . These coastal forests are simple in composition yet often complex in age and tree structure . Yellow-cedar occurs across a soil-drainage gradient from poorly drained bogs to well-drained soils on steeper slopes that often support more productive stands . This study occurs in the northern portion of the yellow-cedar population distribution and at the current latitudinal limits of forests affected by decline. We centered our investigation on protected lands in four inlets in the Alexander Archipelago on the outer coast of the West Chichagof-Yakobi Wilderness on Chichagof Island in the Tongass National Forest and Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve . Aerial surveys were conducted in 2010 and 2011 to assess the presence of affected forests and to identify the edge of yellow-cedar die back that occurs south of GLBA on Chichagof Island. Aside from a brief history of small-scale gold mining that occurred in several areas on Chichagof Island between 1906 and 1942, there is little evidence of human impact on these lands, making them ideal for studying ecological dynamics.
Drawing upon previous studies that estimated the time-since-death for five classes of standing dead yellow-cedar trees at various stages of deterioration , our plot selection consisted of sequential steps, in the field, to sample forests representative from a range of time-since-death. Not all yellow-cedar trees in a forest affected by mortality die at once; mortality is progressive in forests experiencing die back . Highly resistant to decay, these trees remain standing for up to a century after their death . As a result, they offer the opportunity to date disturbance, approximately, and to create a long-term chronosequence. First, we stratified the study area coastline into visually distinguishable categories of ‘‘cedar decline status’’ by conducting boat surveys and assessing cedar decline status across 121.1 km of coastline in June 2011 and 2012. We traveled the coastline and made visual observations of live and dead yellow-cedar trees and their snag classes. We assigned cedar decline status to coastal forests at 100 m increments using a GPS Garmin 60 CSx . Next, using the ArcGIS 10.2 Geographic Information System software , we randomly generated plot locations in forests categorized during the coastline survey as follows: live, unaffected by mortality; recent mortality; mid-range mortality; and old mortality. Lastly, we controlled for basal area and key biophysical factors, including elevation and aspect via methods described. Plots were restricted to elevations less than 150 m, excluding northeast facing plots, to sample from low-elevation plots representative of conditions where yellow-cedar decline commonly occurs at this latitude . Plots were randomly located between 0.1 and 0.5 km of the mean high tide to avoid sampling within the beach fringe area, and on slopes ,72% to limit risk of mass movement . We excluded plots with a totalbasal area ,35 m2 /ha to avoid sampling below the optimal niche of yellowcedar . This control was performed in the field by point sampling to estimate basal area using a prism with a basal area factor 2.5 . Plots dominated by the presence of a creek bed or other biophysical disturbance were eliminated from plot selection,dutch bucket for tomatoes due to the confounding influence of disturbance on the number of trees standing and species abundance. A minimum distance of 300 m was maintained between all plot centers. By restricting our sampling to these controls, our study was designed to examine the process of forest development post-decline in low-elevation coastal forests with plot conditions typical for yellow-cedar mortality excluding bog wetlands, where yellow-cedar may co-occur sparsely with shore pine. After controlling for biophysical factors, 20 plots were sampled in live forests and 10 plots in each of the affected cedar status categories for a total of 50 plots across the study area .Data were collected in fixed, circular nested plots to capture a wide range of tree diameters and in quadrats within each plot to account for spatial variability in under story vegetation. Forty plots were established and measured during the 2011 field season and 10 plots during the 2012 field season, through the seasonal window of mid-June to mid-August. Nested circular plots were used to sample trees and saplings as follows: a 10.3 m fixed radius plot for trees 25.0 cm diameter at breast height , a 6.0 m fixed radius plot for saplings ,2.5 cm dbh and 1 m height, and trees 2.5–24.9 cm dbh. We counted live saplings of each species to analyze the population dynamics for individuals that survive to this size class. For each tree, we recorded species, dbh to the nearest 0.1 cm, height to the nearest 0.01 m, dead or live, and for dead trees snag classes I–V.
To provide an additional long term view of species changes, we recorded counts for smaller conifer seedlings , identifying western hemlock and mountain hemlock to genus, and other conifers to species. We noted presence/ absence of each conifer species 10–99 cm, but did not sample this size class for individual counts. We recorded maximum height and percentage cover of each plant species observed according to the Daubenmire method on a continuous scale . In unique cases where consistent identification to species was difficult Salisb.; Vaccinium ovalifolium Sm., and V. alaskaense Howell, we combined observations but noted both species presence for total richness across the study area. Blueberries, V. ovalifolium and V. alaskaense, are similar in appearance and often synonymized . Mosses and liverworts were recorded together as bryophytes within the quadrat. Sedges were recorded together but distinguished from true grasses .The changes observed across the chronosequence provide strong evidence that this species die back associated with climate change can result in a temporally dynamic forest community distinguished by the diminished importance of yellow-cedar, an increase in graminoid abundance in the early stages of stand development, and a significant increase in shrub abundance and volume over time. Tree mortality timing and intensity, as characterized by our stratified sampling of cedar decline status, played an important role in determining the under story community composition and over story processes of stand re-initiation and development. Our results highlight the ways in which widespread mortality of one species can create opportunities for other species and underscores the importance of considering long-term temporal variation when evaluating the effects of a species die back associated with climate change. Methods for predicting future changes in species distributions, such as the climate envelope approach, rely upon statistical correlations between existing species distributions and environmental variables to define a species’ tolerance; however, a number of critiques point to many factors other than climate that play an important role in predicting the dynamics of species’ distributions . Given the different ecological traits among species, climate change will probably not cause entire plant communities to shift en masse to favorable habitat . Although rapid climatic change or extreme climatic events can alter community composition , a more likely scenario is that new assemblages will appear . As vulnerable species drop out of existing ecosystems, resident species will become more competitive and new species may arrive through migrations . Individual species traits may also help explain the process of forest development in forests affected by widespread mortality, as the most abundant species may be those with traits that make them well-adapted to changing biotic and abiotic conditions . We were unable to evaluate the independent effect of soil saturation on canopy openness, but the fact that canopy openness was a significant predictor of shore pine and mountain hemlock sapling occurrence suggests the important roles of soil conditions and light in determining which species are more likely to regenerate. Both species are known to have preferences for wet soils and scrubby open forests , and canopy openness in forests affected by decline has two driving components: soil saturation and crown deterioration caused by yellow cedar death . Young mountain hemlock seedlings, for example, grow best in partial shade , likely explaining why this species regenerated relatively well as saplings in recent mortality before canopy openness increased further. In contrast, western hemlock is known to tolerate a wide range of soil and light conditions for establishment and growth and seeds prolifically, as does Sitka spruce . Species can also respond to varying light conditions with differential growth responses. Western hemlock reached maximum growth rate when exposed experimentally to relatively high light intensities, whereas bunch berry responded most strongly to relatively low light intensities .